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AUSTRALIA: Gradual Labour Market Easing May Have Stalled

AUSTRALIA
Central Bank NewsForeign Exchange BulletsAPACAustraliaBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsRBARegionMarkets

RBA officials often speak on the labour market and today’s September data plus what appears to be a turn in the trend since mid-year will likely confirm its view that the labour market is tighter than implied by full employment estimates and that firms are “labour hoarding”. The gradual deterioration in some of its metrics appears to have stalled or turned, thus policy is likely to “need to be sufficiently restrictive” for now.

  • The September underemployment rate fell to 6.3% from 6.5% resulting in the Q3 average 0.2pp below Q2 at 6.4%. The latest reading is still 0.5pp above the February 2023 trough but remains low and now appears to be improving again.
  • The rise in the youth unemployment rate appears also to have stalled. It is seen as a leading indicator of the labour market. It fell 0.8pp in September to 9.1%, lowest since February, and Q3 was down 0.1pp on Q2. It remains 2pp above the July 2022 trough.

Australia unemployment rate 15-24 years %

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RBA officials often speak on the labour market and today’s September data plus what appears to be a turn in the trend since mid-year will likely confirm its view that the labour market is tighter than implied by full employment estimates and that firms are “labour hoarding”. The gradual deterioration in some of its metrics appears to have stalled or turned, thus policy is likely to “need to be sufficiently restrictive” for now.

  • The September underemployment rate fell to 6.3% from 6.5% resulting in the Q3 average 0.2pp below Q2 at 6.4%. The latest reading is still 0.5pp above the February 2023 trough but remains low and now appears to be improving again.
  • The rise in the youth unemployment rate appears also to have stalled. It is seen as a leading indicator of the labour market. It fell 0.8pp in September to 9.1%, lowest since February, and Q3 was down 0.1pp on Q2. It remains 2pp above the July 2022 trough.

Australia unemployment rate 15-24 years %

Keep reading...Show less