Australia July Dwelling Approvals Down But Trend Positive

     SYDNEY (MNI) - From building-approvals data for July published by the

Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday:

                                              July                          June

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                              (M/M% unless stated;          (M/M% unless stated;

                              seasonally adjusted)          seasonally adjusted)

Dwelling Units

Approved                                      -1.7    +11.7 (revised from +10.9)

MNI Median                -5.0(range -12.0 to 0.0)

Dwelling Units

Approved (Trend)                              +0.7                          +0.7

Dwelling Units

Approved Y/Y                                 -13.9   -2.3 (last month's release)

Private Houses                                 0.0                          +4.0

Private Units

Excluding Houses                              -6.7                         +21.3

     FACTORS: The number of dwellings approved fell in July, giving back just a

small portion of the sharp 11.7% m/m rise in June. The latest fall was mainly

due to a 6.7% drop in multi-unit approvals which followed a sharp 21.3% rise in

June. Private house approvals were flat in July, and in trend terms have risen

for five straight months. Overall dwelling approvals rose 0.7% m/m in trend

terms and have risen for three consecutive months.  

     Total building approvals by value fell 0.4% in July, due mainly to a 2.2%

drop in residential building approvals that offset a 2.4% rise in

non-residential approvals.

     TAKEAWAY: The outcome was higher than a MNI median forecast but within the

range predicted by economists in the survey. The data for second quarter

construction work done published Wednesday showed dwelling construction fell for

the second straight quarter but looking ahead the approvals data show housing

construction is likely to remain high. In the August Statement on Monetary

Policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia noted that home building approvals had

been lower than their recent peaks for some time which suggests that the

pipeline of work to be done will start to fall over the forecast period. "The

contribution to GDP growth from dwelling investment over the forecast period is

expected to be minimal," the RBA said.

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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