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AUSTRALIA: RBA Likely On Hold, But Statement/Forecasts To Determine Outlook

AUSTRALIA
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The week’s attention will be firmly on the RBA decision, forecasts and press conference on Tuesday. With rates unanimously expected to be left at 4.35%, the meeting statement is likely to be scrutinised for any changes in tone. It is likely to be seen as dovish if the forecasts show underlying inflation reaching target sooner than the current Q4 2025 expectation. 

  • The RBA decision and publication of the Statement on Monetary Policy is scheduled for 1430 AEST on November 5 with Governor Bullock’s press conference following at 1530 AEST.
  • The Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge for October prints on Monday. It has been trending lower since the end of last year but printed slightly higher in September at 2.6% y/y.
  • Vacancies have been moderating but remain elevated. ANZ-Indeed job ads for October are released on Monday.
  • Final October Judo Bank composite/services PMIs are out on Tuesday. Both are signalling little growth in activity.
  • On Thursday, the September trade balance is released and the surplus is expected to be slightly narrower at $5.3bn, after $5.6bn in August. 
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The week’s attention will be firmly on the RBA decision, forecasts and press conference on Tuesday. With rates unanimously expected to be left at 4.35%, the meeting statement is likely to be scrutinised for any changes in tone. It is likely to be seen as dovish if the forecasts show underlying inflation reaching target sooner than the current Q4 2025 expectation. 

  • The RBA decision and publication of the Statement on Monetary Policy is scheduled for 1430 AEST on November 5 with Governor Bullock’s press conference following at 1530 AEST.
  • The Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge for October prints on Monday. It has been trending lower since the end of last year but printed slightly higher in September at 2.6% y/y.
  • Vacancies have been moderating but remain elevated. ANZ-Indeed job ads for October are released on Monday.
  • Final October Judo Bank composite/services PMIs are out on Tuesday. Both are signalling little growth in activity.
  • On Thursday, the September trade balance is released and the surplus is expected to be slightly narrower at $5.3bn, after $5.6bn in August.