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AUSTRIA: Far-Right Secures Top Spot, Focus Turns To Coalition Talks

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For the first time, the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) has come in first in a federal election and could lead the next governing coalition. According to preliminary results, the FPÖ secured 58 out of 183 seats with 29.2% of the vote, an increase of 27 seats from the 2019 election. The conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) of Chancellor Karl Nehammer fell to second place with 52 seats on 26.5% of the vote, representing a loss of 19 seats. Austria's electoral system makes single-party majority gov'ts all but impossible, requiring coalition negotiations after each election. It is Nehammer's party that sits as kingmakers. 

  • Either the ÖVP can back an FPÖ gov't as the junior partner. One of its conditions is likely to be the nomination of a chancellor other than FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl. While clearly tapping into the public sentiment during the election campaign, Kickl is seen as too extreme a figure for the ÖVP to countenance leading the gov't.
  • Alternatively, the ÖVP could seek to form a 'grand coalition' with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPÖ, 41 seats). Preliminary results have the two parties' combined seat total at 93, just crossing the majority threshold of 92.
  • Brussels will be following coalition negotiations closely. An FPÖ-ÖVP gov't could swing in a more eurosceptic direction, teaming up with the Orban gov't in Hungary and Fico in Slovakia in areas such as immigration and Ukraine aid. 

Chart 1. Austria Federal Election, Seats (Preliminary Results)

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For the first time, the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) has come in first in a federal election and could lead the next governing coalition. According to preliminary results, the FPÖ secured 58 out of 183 seats with 29.2% of the vote, an increase of 27 seats from the 2019 election. The conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) of Chancellor Karl Nehammer fell to second place with 52 seats on 26.5% of the vote, representing a loss of 19 seats. Austria's electoral system makes single-party majority gov'ts all but impossible, requiring coalition negotiations after each election. It is Nehammer's party that sits as kingmakers. 

  • Either the ÖVP can back an FPÖ gov't as the junior partner. One of its conditions is likely to be the nomination of a chancellor other than FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl. While clearly tapping into the public sentiment during the election campaign, Kickl is seen as too extreme a figure for the ÖVP to countenance leading the gov't.
  • Alternatively, the ÖVP could seek to form a 'grand coalition' with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPÖ, 41 seats). Preliminary results have the two parties' combined seat total at 93, just crossing the majority threshold of 92.
  • Brussels will be following coalition negotiations closely. An FPÖ-ÖVP gov't could swing in a more eurosceptic direction, teaming up with the Orban gov't in Hungary and Fico in Slovakia in areas such as immigration and Ukraine aid. 

Chart 1. Austria Federal Election, Seats (Preliminary Results)

Keep reading...Show less