US
Political betting markets show US Senator from Arizona Mark Kelly leading Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro in the contest to be names as the vice presidential running mate for frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, incumbent VP Kamala Harris. Data from PredictIt shows a tumultuous market, with significant fluctuations in the itentities of favourites for the veep slot over the past 24 hours.
- According to PredictIt, Kelly has a 41% implied probability of being the Dem VP candidatem compared to 26% for Shapiro. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshar are in third and fourth place respectively on 15% and 13% respectively.
- ABC news reports that Kelly and Shapiro are the frontrunners according to a senior administration official. ABC: "..The two men come from key 2024 battleground states, and have experience trouncing Trump-endorsed candidates."
- The selection of either Kelly or Shapiro could give a significant boost to Harris' prospect of election as winning at least one of their home states is likely to prove crucial to the Democrats' chances. Pennsylvania carries a significant weighting of 20 electoral college votes, with Arizona providing 11.
- With support for former President Donald Trump seen as stronger in the 'sun belt' than the 'rust belt', Harris could be inclined to pick Arizonan Kelly to boost her chances (and be seen as taking a stronger line on immigration).
- Alternatively, picking Pennsylvanian Shapiro could strengthen Harris in a region where the liberal Californian VP has struggled to pick up support compared to 'Scranton Joe' Biden.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of being named Democratic VP Nominee, %
Source: PredictIt
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