Babis Gov't Loses Majority, But No Guarantee Of Snap Elections

Prime Minister Andrej Babis' gov't lost its majority in the Czech Chamber of Deputies yesterday after the far-left Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) withdrew its support from the governing coalition.

• The withdrawal of KSCM leaves the gov't with 92 seats compared to 108 for the opposition (see chart below). Babis' populist ANO holds 78 seats, with its partner the centre-left CSSD on 14.

Source: Czech Parliament, MNI

• KSCM leader Vojtech Filip stated to CTK that his party had withdrawn support over the failure of the Babis gov't to create a state-owned bank. However, there is also the prospect that the KSCM withdrew after seeing its support in opinion polls decline to around 5%, the threshold for entering parliament, and judging that it might be able to boost its support better from a position of opposition.
• The loss of a majority does not necessarily mean the fall of the Babis gov't. While the KSCM said it would support a vote of no confidence in Babis if called, President Milos Zeman has indicated that if such a vote were successful, the Babis minority gov't would continue in a caretaker capacity until the scheduled date of the legislative election on 8-9 October 2021.
• As such, while the gov't will not be able to enact any major new policies, it will likely be able to continue operating through the course of the pandemic until the next scheduled election, rather than facing an imminent election campaign amidst the vaccine rollout.