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Back Near Unchanged After Two-Way Trade Continues

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys sit in the middle of somewhat narrow ranges, near unchanged on the day to consolidate Friday’s net clawing back of two-way large moves on stronger payrolls and weaker ISM services reports.
  • TYH4 at 111-22+ remains within both today’s and yesterday’s wider ranges on reasonable volumes of 290k. A corrective cycle remains in play with support at 111-06+ (Jan 5 low) whilst resistance is seen at 112-19 (Jan 4 high).
  • Early Monday inputs included already swelling USD & EUR IG issuance slates (headlined by a USD multi-part benchmark offering from Saudi Arabia), softer-than-expected German factory orders data and a firmer-than-expected round of Swiss CPI data.
  • The weekend saw Dallas Fed’s Logan stress that the Fed should not rule out a move higher in interest rates, noting her focus on financial conditions at the same time. On the future of QT, she notes "we should slow the pace of runoff as ON RRP balances approach a low level. Normalizing the balance sheet more slowly can actually help get to a more efficient balance sheet in the long run by smoothing redistribution and reducing the likelihood that we'd have to stop prematurely."
  • On the fiscal side, the weekend saw congressional leaders announce an accord re: top-line spending levels for the current FY, essentially reduces the chance of a government shutdown later this month.
  • Fed Funds implied rates show 17bp of cumulative cuts for March and 137bp of cuts through '24, after Friday's data-inspired vol saw some meaningful swings in that marker.
  • Data: NY Fed inflation expectations Dec (1100ET), Consumer credit Nov (1500ET).
  • Fedspeak: Bostic ('24) on economic outlook (1230ET, no text)
  • Bills issuance: US Tsy $75B 13W, $68B 26W Bill auctions (1130ET)
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