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Back To A Further 8.5+ Fed Hikes This Year

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed hike expectations by Dec’22 have ground higher through both Asian and European sessions with 215bp now priced in FOMC-dated Fed Funds, up from an earlier ‘low’ of 207bps but still off yesterday’s highs of 220bps.
  • As with yesterday, there has been less change for immediate meetings, with May nudging up to 45.5bps but June little changed at highs of 88bps (18% chance of 75bps, 61.5% of 100bps, 20.5% of 125bps).
  • Fedspeak is kicked off by NY Fed’s Williams at 0900ET but only with opening and closing remarks at a conference on banking culture, after non-committal comments around the prospects for a 50bp hike last week.
  • Philly Fed’s Harker (2023 voter) provides his first post-FOMC thoughts on the economic outlook at 1045ET, followed by a CNBC interview at 1440ET.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds cumulative hikes by meetingSource: Bloomberg

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