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Back To Fully Pricing 6 Hikes In 2022

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes have firmed notably in the past three hours kicked off by the Russian parliament planning to ratify agreements that don’t specify the exact borders of the self-proclaimed separatist entities with further headlines that could limit sanctions pressure for Russia.
  • The US coming in after Presidents’ Day will see Mar 16 pricing almost back where it was prior to NY Fed’s Williams on Fri saying he didn’t see a compelling reason for a big rate increase at 33bps.
  • In rare mon pol commentary, Governor Bowman said yesterday she will watch data closely to judge the size of the March increase (25 or 50bps) with her intent to take forceful action to cool inflation.
  • Meetings further out have seen larger moves, more firmly pricing in 4 consecutive hikes to July (106bps) and back to 6 hikes for 2022 (155bps).

Fed Funds futures cumulative pricing for March, July and December meetings. Source: Bloomberg

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