Free Trial

Bailey Dampens Rate Cut Expectations

FOREX

Implied vols receded early Tuesday, with markets resuming the recent trend of selling USD in favour of growth proxies including AUD and NZD. Equities are mixed, although US futures are pointing to a mildly positive open later today, which has given markets the greenlight to resume their USD-selling bias. A lower close for the USD index today would be the first down-day since Jan 5th.

GBP trades well following a speech from BoE governor Bailey who highlighted the difficulties and uncertainties when it comes to negative interest rates. Bailey stated that while there "nothing to stop" the imposition of negative interest rates, there would be lots of issues including complicating the outlook for the banking sector. Markets read these comments as a firm indication that the MPC are still well away from seriously considering NIRP, resulting in markets pushing out rate cut expectations and boosting GBP in the process. GBP/USD showed above $1.36.

The data schedule is particularly quiet Tuesday, with just US JOLTS job openings data on the docket. Fed's Brainard, George & Rosengren speak as well as ECB's de Cos.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.