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Bailey due to speak at 10:10GMT

BOE
  • Governor Bailey is due to deliver a speech at the “Cost of Living Crisis Conference” with the text due for release at 10:10GMT here. (Note that the time of release was changed from 10:00GMT last Friday).
  • Focus will be on whether Bailey makes any attempt to pull back market expectations of future hikes which are currently pricing around 86bp of further hikes by year-end before some minor inversion next year. For comparison immediately after the February MPR and rate decision markets were pricing around 35bp of hikes by the summer but for the curve to then invert.
  • We are not, however, at the levels in excess of 5% that saw the Bank state that it thought it would tighten less than market pricing.
  • Any comments in reaction to the latest datapoints will be closely watched, as well as any steer towards whether he will vote for another 50bp hike in March, slow to 25bp or indeed thinks there is scope for no further hikes.
  • We think that there are two-way risks to the market here.
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