March 01, 2023 10:23 GMT
Bailey not pushing back on market pricing - but doesn't seem to agree with it
- So Bailey saying that the data is broadly in line with his expectations - and also saying that further tightening would be required if there were to be "more evidence of persistent inflationary pressures."
- He seems to be deferring his decision on how to vote in March until after the next inflation / labour market data. But he does seem to be looking to decide between unchanged rates or 25bp.
- There is nothing to push back against market pricing here - if you think inflation is going to surprise to the upside there is no reason to change your view based on Bailey's comments - but reading between the lines Bailey's base case probably wouldn't be as high as the market-implied rate path.