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Bailey not pushing back on market pricing - but doesn't seem to agree with it

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  • So Bailey saying that the data is broadly in line with his expectations - and also saying that further tightening would be required if there were to be "more evidence of persistent inflationary pressures."
  • He seems to be deferring his decision on how to vote in March until after the next inflation / labour market data. But he does seem to be looking to decide between unchanged rates or 25bp.
  • There is nothing to push back against market pricing here - if you think inflation is going to surprise to the upside there is no reason to change your view based on Bailey's comments - but reading between the lines Bailey's base case probably wouldn't be as high as the market-implied rate path.
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  • So Bailey saying that the data is broadly in line with his expectations - and also saying that further tightening would be required if there were to be "more evidence of persistent inflationary pressures."
  • He seems to be deferring his decision on how to vote in March until after the next inflation / labour market data. But he does seem to be looking to decide between unchanged rates or 25bp.
  • There is nothing to push back against market pricing here - if you think inflation is going to surprise to the upside there is no reason to change your view based on Bailey's comments - but reading between the lines Bailey's base case probably wouldn't be as high as the market-implied rate path.