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Bailey on GDP and money supply

BOE
  • Asked on Dhingra's views he says his sense is last year overall GDP was basically flat. A technical recession or not is in the balance - it wouldn't take much to tip either way. Says if you split into market and govt economy, market economy was negative last year and govt economy was positive (e.g. Health, education).- Are now seeing signs of a pickup in the surveys. In the Feb MPR see modest pickup this year- also helped by a lower yield curve.
  • Bailey asked on if the BOE pay too little attention to money supply. Says that he looks at relationship between stock of broad money and nominal GDP. That gives a sense of overhang or underhang of money. Now it is back to the pre-Covid trendline - there was an overhang through Covid. Q is what happens next. He says the prob looking at the M/M change is the "cloudiness" of the data- but looking at the ratio is clearer.
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