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Bailey says earnings "a bit disappointing"

BOE
  • Bailey says we are "seeing inflation coming down pretty rapidly" and that coincides with the end of global shocks. Services inflation is important as it picks up domestic pressures but is still above 6% and that is not compatible with a 2% target, but have started to see evidence of it coming down.
  • On earnings - were a bit disappointing. "There was quite a marked reduction in pay growth yesterday just not quite as as far as we thought." So again are seeing that coming down - but need to see more evidence to convince us we're on track for 2% sustainable inflation.
  • Most challenging in the data - quantity side of the labour market. Problem is ONS LFS has had quite serious problems. It's affecting more the identification of unemployment and inactivity. Are other things to proxy employment. Fewer things to proxy the split between unemployment and inactivity.
  • Asked if need to see all 3 improve to cut, he said in an ideal world all 3 would move consistently "and if they don't we will need to lift under the lid and see what's going on."
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