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Bailey to deliver Mansion House speech later today

BOE
  • This evening the Governor will give his Mansion House speech – although we only have to wait until 4pm BST for the release of the text.
  • Bailey made a number of media appearances following the 50bp June hike, but this will be the best opportunity he has had to explain in more detail the rationale behind the decision and to respond to recent market pricing.
  • At the time of writing markets are pricing in a cumulative peak of 142bp priced by March 2024 (which would put Bank Rate just below 6.50%). This is up from a peak of 126bp in the February 2024 meeting at the end of the June but down from 165bp which followed the strong US ADP employment and ISM services prints on Thursday.
  • The only major data that has been received since that June MPC meeting has been the PMIs (which the BOE may have had some access to), retail sales, housing data and the latest DMP data.
  • Elsewhere this week there are no other MPC speakers scheduled although we will receive the Financial Stability Report on Wednesday morning with the press conference to follow later in the morning.
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