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RIKSBANK: Balanced Commentary From Thedeen Ahead of Finance Committee Hearing

RIKSBANK
Central Bank NewsSwedenCEEMEA RiksbankBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Summary of Governor Thedeen's presentation to the Riksdag Committee on Finance here. A few initial highlights:

  • "We now see signs of a business cycle rebound. GDP growth was clearly higher than expected in the second half of last year. At the same time, the signals for the beginning of this year are more mixed"
  • "Recent inflation outcomes have been slightly higher than expected. “It remains to be seen how much of this is due to temporary factors and what affects the inflation outlook in the slightly longer term, but it calls for vigilance"
  • The international turmoil has changed market growth expectations, with weaker growth now expected in the United States and stronger growth in Europe than was anticipated just one month ago. In this environment, European long-term interest rates have risen and the krona has strengthened
  • Unsurprisingly no clear signals for the March decision: "Ahead of our next monetary policy meeting on 19 March, we will weigh up how the new information affects the outlook for economic activity and inflation in Sweden"

All five of the Riksbank Executive Board will participate in today's hearing, so it will provide an insight into whether and by how much views differ on the outlook. While a March cut appears very unlikely given recent data outturns, it's worth noting that Thedeen's summary flags "mixed" activity indicators at the start of this year, and the potential for recent upside inflation drivers to be "temporary". This could suggest the risks to policy (even if much smaller than a few weeks ago) remain tilted towards more cuts.

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Summary of Governor Thedeen's presentation to the Riksdag Committee on Finance here. A few initial highlights:

  • "We now see signs of a business cycle rebound. GDP growth was clearly higher than expected in the second half of last year. At the same time, the signals for the beginning of this year are more mixed"
  • "Recent inflation outcomes have been slightly higher than expected. “It remains to be seen how much of this is due to temporary factors and what affects the inflation outlook in the slightly longer term, but it calls for vigilance"
  • The international turmoil has changed market growth expectations, with weaker growth now expected in the United States and stronger growth in Europe than was anticipated just one month ago. In this environment, European long-term interest rates have risen and the krona has strengthened
  • Unsurprisingly no clear signals for the March decision: "Ahead of our next monetary policy meeting on 19 March, we will weigh up how the new information affects the outlook for economic activity and inflation in Sweden"

All five of the Riksbank Executive Board will participate in today's hearing, so it will provide an insight into whether and by how much views differ on the outlook. While a March cut appears very unlikely given recent data outturns, it's worth noting that Thedeen's summary flags "mixed" activity indicators at the start of this year, and the potential for recent upside inflation drivers to be "temporary". This could suggest the risks to policy (even if much smaller than a few weeks ago) remain tilted towards more cuts.