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Ball Of Confusion

US TSYS SUMMARY

Rates held a narrow range Tuesday, at times correlated positively with equities as support in the long end evaporated late with equities inching higher (ESZ0 +25.5).

  • Confusing Fed message: early comments over possible rate HIKE before 2% inflation target met by Chicago Fed Pres Evans counter to Fed message et al: steady rates for a year after 2% attained.
  • Rate locks/unwinds vs. over $20B corporate issuance kept futures in narrow range.
  • Meanwhile, US Tsy $52B 2Y Note auction (91282CAN1) tailed slightly: 0.136% rate (0.155% last month) vs. 0.135% WI, bid/cover 2.42 vs. 2.78 previous.
  • Lead quarterly Eurodollar futures, EDZ0 steady after latest 3M LIBOR set' -0.00075 to new record low of 0.22250% (-0.00288/wk). Chunky spds: early sale 17.5k Red Jun22/Green Dec22 spd at .045, late +10k EDM1/EDZ1 0.015.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.4bps at 0.1331%, 5-Yr is down 0.2bps at 0.2643%, 10-Yr is up 0.8bps at 0.674%, and 30-Yr is up 1.4bps at 1.4284%.
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