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Banamex Economist Survey Due, Focus on March CPI Next Week

MEXICO
  • Citibanamex will release its economists survey later with forecasts for economic growth, inflation and the monetary policy rate. Vehicle production and exports data for March will be published at 1300BST (0800ET), while March nominal wages and formal job creation data may also cross.
  • After that, focus turns to next week’s March CPI data, which will be of particular interest given Banxico’s data dependence approach to further monetary easing. Yesterday’s Banxico minutes suggested that the first cut was a hawkish cut and that the board will take it one step at a time ahead. JP Morgan’s base case is still for a May cut, but they note that it will be tight call given the likelihood of an uptick in March inflation and sticky core services inflation.
  • In other news, Reuters report comments from Presidential election frontrunner Sheinbaum’s energy adviser, who said yesterday that support for Pemex must be limited and that the company must show that it can be accountable. He said that a Sheinbaum government could look for aid schemes to help the company but it must show improvement.
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