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EGB Supply For W/C May 2, 2022

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NEW ZEALAND: Bank desk views on today's NZ Q3 CPI Release due 22:45 BST:
- ANZ: We exp. +0.8% q/q, +1.8% y/y. Measures of core CPI look poised to rise as
well. However, we'd caution against reading too much into the Q3 inflation
pulse. There are a number of transitory factors at play that the RBNZ will look
through & patchy data flow alongside global uncertainties suggest risks to the
RBNZ's medium-term activity & inflation forecasts are skewed to the downside.
- ASB: We exp. +0.7% q/q, +1.7% y/y. Fuel & housing-related costs are exp. to
continue driving much of the increase. However, over the medium term, the risks
remain skewed to the downside. As a result, we exp. the RBNZ to largely look
through the Q3 lift. We exp. the OCR to remain on hold until early .20.
- Westpac: We exp. +0.7% q/q, +1.7% y/y. Higher fuel prices account for much of
the quarterly rise. We also expect the lower exchange rate over the last year to
have an impact on prices of imports. Inflation is set to rise above the 2%
midpoint of the RBNZ's target range by end '18. A petrol-induced rise in
inflation could make OCR cuts a harder sell in the near term, though it
certainly wouldn't preclude rate cuts if the economy faltered.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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