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Bank of America Expect 50BP Hike With Some Voting For Bolder Hike

COLOMBIA
  • BofA forecast the BanRep board to hike the policy rate by 50bp (to 10.50%) on October 28, in a split vote (with some board members voting for 100bp). Both activity and inflation have been surprising to the upside, but BanRep decided to underwhelm markets at the last meeting (September) by hiking less than what was priced in.
  • The recent sell-off of Colombian assets is putting pressure on BanRep to continue hiking. Meanwhile, President Petro has criticized BanRep's actions arguing that interest rate hikes are not helping to reduce inflation.
  • It will be interesting to see/test in the next month how insulated BanRep really is from political power. At the outset, BanRep's independence is written in the Constitution.
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