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Bank Of America Flag GBP Worry

STERLING

Bank of America Research note that "YtD performance of GBP has
evolved largely as we had exp... GBP weakness has been predominant
versus our preferred currencies for bearish views: EUR, CHF & JPY.
Heading into Aug, we think the rest of '20 is a harbinger of further
weakness to come: Aug-Dec historically contain 4 -ve months for GBP
performance. But while the global backdrop will provide the day-to-day
narrative for G10 FX more broadly, the fortunes of GBP will increasingly
be driven by the monetary policy stance, the ability of the econ to
rebound from COVID-19, and Brexit negotiations, which are effectively
stuck in the mud. These form the pillars of our structurally bearish view
and we take this opportunity to flag GBP/CHF as the preferred
expression."

  • BofA also lower their GBP forecasts:
  • GBP/USD: Q420: $1.17 (prev. $1.34), Q421: $1.22 (prev. $1.38)
  • EUR/GBP: Q420: GBP0.92 (prev. GBP0.87), Q421: GBP0.94 (prev. GBP0.88)
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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