Bank Outlooks Less Bullish Oil 2023

Current bank outlooks on crude: Major banks cut their predictions for oil prices this year on the surprising resilience of Russian barrels to remain on the market after sanctions.

• Morgan Stanley cut its forecasts for the second half of the year and softened its view that Brent crude will surge past $100 a barrel. They projected that Brent oil would trade in a range between $90-100 per barrel over the back half of 2023, which was down from a prior estimate for a range of $100-110.
• JP Morgan maintains a Brent price forecast of $90/bbl in 2023 but dropped the expectation that OPEC+ will defend a price floor of $80/bbl, saying they could fall to $65-70/bbl.
• Bank of America cited strong Russian flows providing less chance of a crude price spike this year.
• Goldman Sachs still expects Brent Crude prices to hit $100 per barrel this year, but only in December compared to earlier expectations of $100 oil as soon as mid-2023. It cut its average Brent price to $92 a barrel this year from $98.
• Goldmans Currie said the bank is still bullish commodities, fuelled by the Chinese demand rebound.