*** Bank Views following the RBNZ MonPol.......>

RBNZ: *** Bank Views following the RBNZ MonPol decision (1/3): 

ANZ: Today's Statement could be interpreted as more dovish. Developments since

Feb have been positive for headline CPI on the whole, with a lower exchange rate

& higher oil prices. But the RBNZ is treating this largely as noise: it cares

about non-tradable inflation. The outlook for domestic inflation remains benign,

with non-tradable inflation forecast to increase only very gradually. Our own

views on the outlook for MonPol are unchanged. We exp. the next move in the OCR

to be a hike and have pencilled in Aug 19. This outlook may be tested if we do

not see a broadening in inflationary pressures, or if current global wobbles

take a turn for the worse.

- ASB: The statement provided upside & downside scenarios. On the downside, the

run of low inflation could be more persistent for longer than the RBNZ exp.. On

the upside inflation could pick up faster than exp. if price-setting behaviour

becomes more forward looking. Upcoming minimum wage increases are another upside

risk, as higher wages could cause firms to raise prices by more than assumed. We

continue to exp. the RBNZ to remain on hold until at least Aug '19.