Bank views on today's NZ labour.........>

NEW ZEALAND: Bank views on today's NZ labour market report (1/2):

ANZ: Labour market data for Q118 is exp. to show continued strength in the

labour market, with only gradual improvements likely from here. Wage inflation

is expected to remain modest, but we are anticipating further increases in time.

The RBNZ is exp. to be more focused on labour market data as it moves to a

dual-style mandate. But next week's figures will not change the outlook for the

OCR, which is firmly on hold.

ASB: We exp. to see a moderate 0.5% increase for HLFS employment (3.2% yoy),

which should push the unemployment rate down to 4.4%, a fresh 9-year low.

Measures of labour utilisation should remain elevated. Quarterly labour costs

are expected to climb 0.4% q/q on the LCI measure, with private sector, public

sector and total annual LCI inflation either at (or just below) 2%. Risks are

tilted to the upside. The labour market is tight and looks to be in little need

of policy stimulus to meet employment objectives in the new PTA. Still-low CPI

inflation provides the RBNZ with breathing space and we do not expect the next

OCR hike until Aug 19.