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Banorte: Banxico Cuts Will Not Begin Until February 2024

MEXICO
  • The tone of Banxico’s statement was very similar to the previous meeting despite the downward revision in the central bank’s inflation path – especially for the headline.
  • In Banorte’s view, the most relevant element was that the forward guidance was unchanged. Banorte believe an ‘extended period’ implies two or three decisions with no changes.
  • In turn, this would mean: (1) A significant reduction in the probability of a September easing; and that (2) there is a ‘live’ possibility of a first cut either in November or December.
  • However, Banorte believe that inflationary conditions – especially core dynamics – and Fed actions being potentially more hawkish will limit the room to manoeuvre for Banxico. Therefore, Banorte reiterate their view that cuts will not begin until February 2024.
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