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Banorte Say Banxico Easing To Begin In February 2024

MEXICO
  • Banorte still believe that current guidance from the Banxico committee implies between two and three decisions with an unchanged stance in the absence of strong data surprises and/or in the economic and financial environment.
  • However, Banorte will focus on the evolution of inflation and its expectations, possible changes in members’ opinions and external events or financial market developments that could change the balance of risks surrounding this outlook.
  • Given high uncertainty, Banorte believe inflation’s evolution relative to Banxico’s forecasts will be key. Banorte anticipate better headline dynamics compared to the central bank for the rest of 2023, but are less optimistic about the core. This is very important as the latter remains the central bank’s main concern and is also a major reason behind Banorte’s view that cuts won’t commence until 2024.
  • Regarding Board members’ views, Banorte perceived much more hawkishness from Deputy Governor Heath relative to the comments they had attributed to him in the minutes. His comments are more consistent with Banorte’s expectation of a first rate cut materializing in early 2024 and keep the likelihood of a November cut as very low in their opinion.
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