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BanRep Analyst Views

COLOMBIA
  • *JPMorgan: For now JPM leave their call for BanRep to hike a final 25bp to 13% in March, and then stay on hold until commencing a gradual easing cycle in July, taking the rate to 10% in December and 8% by the middle of 2024.
  • *Barclays: Expect the bank to hike 50bp in March, and for that to be the end of the cycle. Following the end of the cycle, Barclays think Banrep could start to cut rates in H2-23.
    • Colombian rates have joined the global rally in the past weeks, but we still expect some follow-through in front-end rates. The curve is lagging in the EM cutting cycles, and should price in more cuts as the hiking cycle comes to an end (especially in the 2y area).
  • *Pantheon: Expect a modest final 25bp rate hike in March, but can’t rule out further tightening in Q2, if inflation fails to fall as they expect. Pantheon think that inflation peaked this month, but the downtrend will be too slow for comfort, and high inertia and indexation, coupled with relatively high policy risk, suggests that policymakers won’t have it easy in the near term.
  • *TD: Expect a bumpy road from here and until the next monetary policy meeting (March 31), as there are a plethora of macro and inflation indicators scheduled to be published. TD remain wary of receiving rates, at least not just yet, given their expectation of a bumpy path for the short-end of the curve in the near horizon. Regarding COP, they consider USD/COP has entered profit-taking zone, but expect a weak USD to remain the main support in the following weeks.
  • *Scotiabank: Given the new information, Scotiabank expect a final 25bps hike at the March meeting. Inflation is expected to stabilize in Q1-2023, allowing the central bank to continue slowing down the hiking cycle pace and triggering a wait-and-see mode.
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