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BanRep Minutes, September CPI Due Overnight

COLOMBIA
  • The minutes of the Colombia Central Bank's September meeting will be released later today. BanRep hiked the key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.0% in a split 4-3 vote.
    • The three dissenters all voted for bolder action with a 50bps hike.
  • Goldman Sachs note the following:
    • Expect the minutes to review the debate among board members on the expected path for the narrowing output gap. The MPC highlighted that the output gap is expected to close at a faster pace than it had previously anticipated and upgraded the outlook for real GDP growth to 8.6% for 2021 (previously 7.5%) and 3.9% for 2022.
    • In their assessment the MPC will continue to normalize policy in the coming meetings and the bar to accelerate the pace to 50bp is likely relatively low.
    • GS expect the minutes to shed some light on what set of conditions will be required for a faster and more front loaded monetary policy normalization path.
  • Separately, following the minutes, September CPI data will be released overnight where the headline rate is expected to increase once more to 4.47% y/y.
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