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BanRep Minutes Suggest Majority Prefer Maintaining 50bp Easing Pace Ahead

COLOMBIA
  • BanRep published the minutes to its June 28 monetary policy meeting last night, when it cut by another 50bp to 11.25%. The minutes indicated that most members of the board were concerned that a larger cut in rates would not be sustainable, given the risks around the convergence of inflation to target by next year.
  • Goldman Sachs view the minutes as consistent with their expectation of 50bp cuts in upcoming meetings. In their view, the challenging inflation backdrop creates a high hurdle for an imminent acceleration in the pace of cuts, while the recovery of activity also lessens the urgency for larger moves. GS maintain their 9.25% year-end rate forecast, with risks tilted to the downside in Q4 should inflation turn out to be lower than their 5.8% year-end projection.
  • No macro data are due today, with attention turning to next Tuesday’s June CPI data. Analysts currently expect the headline rate of inflation to remain broadly unchanged for a second month running at 7.14% y/y, while the core rate may edge lower to 7.67% y/y, from 7.83%.
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