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BanRep Unchanged, But October Rate Cut Seen Likely

COLOMBIA
  • As expected, Banrep kept policy rates unchanged at 13.25% on Friday, with the vote split 5 – 2. Governor Villar stated that the majority of policymakers considered that “it isn’t prudent to start a process of cutting interest rates”. Villar continued in the press conference, however, stating that the central bank wants rate cuts “when the time is right”.
  • The decision comes despite considerable domestic pressure on the bank to cut rates. Ahead of the decision on Friday, President Petro tweeted his support for an immediate rate cut, warning that rates at 13.25% will do “great economic damage”.
  • Expectations now rest on the bank cutting rates at the next meeting at end-October, a proposition supported by finance minister Bonilla, who stated he sees rate cuts next month. A 25bps cut is the most likely starting point for this easing cycle.
  • The minutes for the meeting are due Wednesday ahead of the next rate decision on October 31st.
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