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Banxico Inflation Report, Brazil Primary Budget Balance Data Due

  • Banxico are scheduled to publish the latest quarterly inflation report on Wednesday. Brazil primary budget balance data as well as the national unemployment rate & job creation figures will cross. Chilean production and activity data will also be in focus along with the latest BCCh traders survey. Colombia unemployment rate data is also on the docket.
  • Having now received state data that equates to 88.0% weighting of the national German CPI print (due at 1300 BST / 1400 CET), MNI calculations estimate that CPI fell by -0.07% m/m, and eased to +6.12% y/y in May.
  • This is based on the published index values for available state data. This implies a substantial 1.1pp deceleration on the annualised figure from +7.2% y/y in April, as German headline inflation distances itself further from the October/November peak of +8.8% y/y.
  • Debt Limit Deal Clears 1st Hurdle: With just one more day to corral Republican support on a debt ceiling agreement, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy faced growing opposition from far-right members of his party but remained confident as the bipartisan bill passed a key procedural hurdle late Tuesday and headed to the House floor.
  • The greenback trades firmer in early Europe, helping tip the USD Index to new multi-month highs on the final trading day of May. For now, prices remain capped ahead of the 76.4% retracement for the March - April downleg, crossing at 104.68. Progress through here would open the best levels since early March for the index.
  • As well as prelim German CPI, focus will be on the MNI Chicago PMI and Canadian GDP data for March. The central bank speaker slate consists of appearances from Fed's Collins, Harker & Jefferson.

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