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Barclays Abandons Final Rate Hike Call, But Sees Cuts Remaining Far Off

FED

Barclays no longer sees the Fed raising rates again in this cycle, vs its previous view that a final hike in the cycle was coming in late January (per Reuters which has seen their note). Prior to and immediately after the November FOMC they'd seen a final hike in December, but they subsequently pushed that back to January.

  • Barclays remains on the more hawkish side of analyst expectations (and market pricing) though, still expecting no Fed funds rate cuts until the December 2024 FOMC, with 25bp cuts every other meeting thereafter (ie 5.00-5.25% end-2024 and 4.00-4.25% end-2025). And they see risks remaining to the upside, with hikes possible if disinflation stalls.
  • So far as MNI is aware, with Barclays throwing in the towel, there are no longer any major sell-side analysts forecasting further Fed tightening in the cycle.
  • Last week following the soft CPI release, BofA and CIBC also abandoned their expectations for a final hike in December. (We'd read 27 FOMC previews going into the November meeting, and of those, only those three had seen further hikes.)
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