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Barclays Expect 50bp BanRep Cut, With Some Board Members Voting For 75bp

COLOMBIA
  • Although February inflation came in higher than expected, Barclays think that Banrep still has space to accelerate the pace of easing to 50bp at its MPC meeting on Friday.
  • Since January, inflation has fallen by 154bp while inflation expectations for 12 months ahead have come down to 4.83%. As a result, Barclays note that real rates have actually moved higher, reaching almost 8.0%, something that the economy clearly does not need.
  • There is no longer any excess demand in the economy and the output gap has turned negative. Barclays expect a split decision in which some board members could vote for 75bp. However, given fiscal uncertainties, they think the majority of the board will prefer a more cautious approach and vote for 50bp.
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