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Barclays Expect CBR Hold in December

RUSSIA
  • Barclays expect the CBR to stay on hold in December and likely during H1 24. That said, if inflation accelerates faster than CBR's new path, they think it could hike by 100bps to 16% given its average inflation path projection of 15-15.2% in November-December 2023.
  • They say the above-expectations 200bp rate hike was made based on significant acceleration of inflation pressures above the CBR’s expectations, high inflation expectations, faster-than-expected growth of economic activity and still high lending rates and fiscal impulse that keeps private and public demand elevated, while tight labour market conditions intensify price pressures.
  • Alongside this, the CBR revised its medium-term forecasts: year-end inflation was revised up to 7-7.5% y/y (from 6-7%) for 2023 and 4-4.5% y/y (from 4.0%) for 2024.
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