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Barclays Expecting Unanimous 75BP Hike From Banxico

MEXICO
  • Barclays expect Banxico to unanimously vote for a 75bp hike to 10.00%. There is not yet a clear downward trend in inflation, with the core still reaching new highs. Banxico will likely raise its inflation forecast again, with a weaker deceleration in 2023 amid higher core persistence.
  • This rate hike would leave the same spread with respect to US rates to favour an orderly adjustment in financial markets amid global uncertainty.
  • Finally, the tone and text of the press release should be similar to the previous meeting, with Banxico willing to assess the magnitude of future adjustments based on prevailing conditions, as Barclays expect it to keep mirroring US Fed actions.
  • While Barclays do not rule out the possibility that Deputy Governor Esquivel could vote for a smaller hike (50bp), they expect a unanimous decision to keep pace with the Fed, with some dovish comments from Esquivel in the minutes.
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