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Barclays Expects Banxico To Remain On Hold All Year

MEXICO
  • According to Bloomberg, Barclays now expects Banxico to stay on hold at 11% for the rest of this year, rather than to cut the policy rate to 10.25%. Barclays also expects Banxico to only deliver 100bp of rate cuts next year, bringing the policy rate to 10.0%, rather than the 7.5% forecasted previously.
  • The revision comes after significant peso volatility this week on the back of growing concerns of potential judiciary reform, which Barclays think would be negative for financial markets in the country. Besides the potential weakening of an important democratic institution, Barclays also raise concerns over the implications for private sector firms which might no longer find support from an independent judiciary.
  • Barclays also note that the reform could undermine nearshoring and trigger negative ratings actions.
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