Barclays have changed their ECB call,......>

ECB VIEW: Barclays have changed their ECB call, "pushing out the end of net APP

from September 2018 until December 2018. We expect a short tapering of net asset

purchases for a total additional amount of EUR30bn - possibly delivered as

EUR15bn in October, EUR10bn in November and EUR5bn in December. The ECB would

then pause for roughly six months and in June 2019 would deliver a DFR hike of

+15bp. Then, in Q4 19, we forecast a DFR and a MRO hike of +25bp each,

effectively removing negative rates by end of 2019. Expect the ECB to signal a

slight downgrade to the 2018 outlook at the April meeting. We expect a downgrade

to the robust outlook described in the March outlook, although the ECB will not

update its macroeconomic projections until June. This is not to say that the ECB

has changed its views on the underlying strength of the EA economy, at least we

do not believe so. It is rather recognition of the unexpected Q1 soft patch and

the lack of good news on core inflation. It is also a recognition that the

global environment has grown more uncertain in light of the US-China trade

conflict, rapidly rising tensions in the Middle East, US-Russia tensions

escalating and the still ongoing uncertainties around the Trump presidency."