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Barclays: Now Expect 25bp Hike As BoC Fine Tunes, Risk It Waits For July MPR

CANADA
  • As noted earlier, Barclays are one of the recent houses now calling for a 25bp hike from the BoC on Wednesday on account of recent upside data surprises across the board.
  • The risk to their call would be from a deferment of the hike to July with the MPR update. However, the BoC has not been shy of surprising in the past, and it can use the economic progress report on Thu to communicate their decision effectively.
  • They see this as fine-tuning policy with the BoC careful not to signal any hike as a resumption of the cycle, instead retaining a data dependent meeting-by-meeting approach.
  • They see this base case as offering limited upside for CAD with the market is pricing 21bp of hikes by July and 33bp by September cumulatively. Beyond the BoC meeting, they expect CAD to remain driven by global factors, particularly the evolution of US and China data.
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