Barclays recommend a long USD/ZAR position....>

FOREX: Barclays recommend a long USD/ZAR position targeting ZAR14.27, with a

stop at ZAR13.82, marginally below the late February lows.

- Barclays write "the rand's high sensitivity to equity returns and South

Africa's reliance on global savings makes it vulnerable to a risk-off

environment driven by equity price declines. Even in a more positive global

environment, further rand appreciation would be challenging, in our view, given

recent ZAR strength and ongoing domestic concern about President Ramaphosa's

inability to deliver needed structural reform. South Africa March inflation is

due for release on Wednesday, but this is of secondary concern for markets, as

we expect a print close to the midpoint of the SARB's 3-6% target band. Extended

long ZAR positioning among the Japanese retail investor community may exacerbate

any rand weakness and there is also the possibility these investors unwind these

positions before the 10-day Golden Week holiday to avoid low liquidity driven

volatility."