-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI US Inflation Insight, Sep'24: 25bp Cut Looks Locked In
Executive Summary
- Core CPI inflation was easily stronger than expected in August at 0.28% M/M (cons 0.2) after 0.165% M/M.
- Rental inflation surprised higher for a second month running, this time with the particularly heavily-weighted OER category at 0.50% M/M vs expectations of 0.3.
- Core services ex-housing was right at the high end of analyst expectations but with possibly a weaker read-through to its PCE counterpart.
- To be revised after Thursday’s PPI report, initial tracking estimates put core PCE at 0.17% M/M in August.
- This, along with core CPI slowing to 2.7% annualized over the last six months, should continue to give the Fed confidence that inflation appears to be on a bumpy disinflation path.
- However, rental inflation has only seen one month back at pre-pandemic averages, and that was in June, which makes it harder to argue cutting in larger-than-25bp clips at this juncture, especially in tandem with latest labor market data.
- Fed Funds have continued to zero in on a 25bp cut next week, as we have argued for some time, with 28bp priced vs 32bp prior to CPI and 37bp prior to Governor Waller’s remarks last week. There are however still more than 100bp of cuts priced over the three meetings left this year (including next week’s).
- Focus will continue to remain on the labor market in the near-term.
PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: USInflationInsightSep2024.pdf
MNI (LONDON)
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.