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Barclays Recommend Short EUR/HUF Trade

HUNGARY

In a recently published note, Barclays recommend a short EUR/HUF trade amid risks of a smaller than expected rate cut at the next NBH meeting:

  • “Higher real rates, amid lower inflation, should increase inflows into the local bond market, further supporting the HUF.”
  • “The market is currently pricing in a cut of around 75bp at the next NBH meeting on 24 October, but there is a risk of just a 50bp cut if EURHUF continues to trade close to 390.”
  • “Aside from risks around FX levels, we think the NBH would also like to see clarity on the c.€13bn worth of EU funds currently frozen by the EC.”
  • “A more hawkish stance would support the HUF... Consequently, we see value in going short EURHUF spot (entry: 386.3, target: 375, stop: 395, 1-month worth of carry: 0.64%).”
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