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Barclays See Downside Risks To Their Q3 Australian GDP Forecast

AUSTRALIA
  • Incorporating today's preliminary data releases that showed inventories falling 1.9% Q/q in Q3, below the median surveyed estimate of 0.0%, Barclays continue to expect Q3 GDP to contract by 2.7% q/q sa but see downside risks to their forecast.
  • Growth data will be released on 1 December and the current Bloomberg median estimate for the data stands at -2.5% Q/q versus a prior reading of 0.7%.
  • They think a weaker outlook for inventories will more than offset the effect of higher operating profits on headline growth.
  • Barclays continue to expect the RBA to slow the pace of AGB purchases after the bank's review in February and end purchases by mid-2022 before embarking on rate hikes from November 2022.
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