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Barclays Wary Of Short CNH Positions Over Politburo Meeting

CNH

The Bank states they are caution about holding short CNH positions over the upcoming Politburo meeting, as reproted Bloomberg.

  • A CNY move to fair value of circa 6.40 will require a ‘policy bazooka’ at this week’s Politburo meeting, according to Barclays (see this link).
  • “Though unlikely, this is not completely impossible given some recent headlines, and we argue that it is risky to go into the politburo with short CNH positions,” according to a Sunday note.
  • Move to fair value would be triggered by measures geared to stimulate the property sector (especially spurring non-tier-1 housing demand) and broad-based household consumption.
  • Politburo likely held on Friday; - expect special treasury bond issuance, a higher quota for local government special bonds (LGSBs) and quasi-fiscal stimulus measures.
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