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Barclays: Watching CPI Core Services Ex Housing

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Barclays are close to consensus with their forecast for core CPI at a ‘soft’ 0.3% M/M although could be a tenth below consensus for the year-ago rate at 6.0% Y/Y.
  • The monthly rate is based on core services of 0.42% M/M, boosted by shelter of 0.6% M/M, whilst core goods remain in modest deflation (-0.16% M/M).
  • That service inflation print would be slower on the month but, outside of the pandemic, is still the fastest since 2005.
  • Post-Powell’s focus, Barclays expect a notably heightened focus on core services ex-shelter, which could see softness led by health insurance -0.4% M/M. However, core services ex-housing only represents 31% of the core CPI index vs more than 50% of the core PCE index.
  • Their medium-term CPI forecasts reflect very heightened uncertainty regarding the path of domestic inflation, but they forecast core at 5.8% Y/Y Dec’22, 2.9% Dec’23 and 2.4% Dec’24.
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