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Barclays: Watching CPI Core Services Ex Housing
- Barclays are close to consensus with their forecast for core CPI at a ‘soft’ 0.3% M/M although could be a tenth below consensus for the year-ago rate at 6.0% Y/Y.
- The monthly rate is based on core services of 0.42% M/M, boosted by shelter of 0.6% M/M, whilst core goods remain in modest deflation (-0.16% M/M).
- That service inflation print would be slower on the month but, outside of the pandemic, is still the fastest since 2005.
- Post-Powell’s focus, Barclays expect a notably heightened focus on core services ex-shelter, which could see softness led by health insurance -0.4% M/M. However, core services ex-housing only represents 31% of the core CPI index vs more than 50% of the core PCE index.
- Their medium-term CPI forecasts reflect very heightened uncertainty regarding the path of domestic inflation, but they forecast core at 5.8% Y/Y Dec’22, 2.9% Dec’23 and 2.4% Dec’24.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.