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Barnier Budget Comments Risk Alienating Key Allies

FRANCE
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The formation of a new French gov't under PM Michel Barnier looks increasingly difficult, with the PM's comments regarding the prospect of tax hikes drawing condemnation from the centrist Ensemble bloc supportive of President Emmanuel Macron. Given that Ensemble would form the bulk of any pro-Barnier governing coalition, losing its support would sound the death knell for such a gov't even before its formation. A meeting between Barnier and his predecessor Gabriel Attal alongside representatives from the Ensemble group scheduled for earlier this morning was postponed with no newdate announced.

  • Barnier has raised the prospect of tax hikes to bring France's deficit under control, calling the budget situation 'very serious'. Barnier: "The budgetary situation of the country [...] is very serious. I have requested all the [parties] to assess its exact reality. This situation deserves better than [soundbites]. It demands responsibility ,"
  • The PM did not mention any specific tax increases, but the very prospect has raised hackles. Outgoing Interior Minister (and potential 2027 presidential nominee) Gerald Darmanin saidthat it is "out of the question" to join or "support" a government that increases taxes. "I will not participate in a government that is not clear on the issue of taxes,"
  • Earlier, centre-right deputy Charles de Courson refused an invite to join the gov't. He joins centre-left Socialist Party deputy Philippe Brun and PS Mayor of Avignon Cécile Helle in turning down ministerial positions in the past 48 hours.
  • Barnier cannot face a censure vote until 1 Oct when the National Assembly reconvenes.
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The formation of a new French gov't under PM Michel Barnier looks increasingly difficult, with the PM's comments regarding the prospect of tax hikes drawing condemnation from the centrist Ensemble bloc supportive of President Emmanuel Macron. Given that Ensemble would form the bulk of any pro-Barnier governing coalition, losing its support would sound the death knell for such a gov't even before its formation. A meeting between Barnier and his predecessor Gabriel Attal alongside representatives from the Ensemble group scheduled for earlier this morning was postponed with no newdate announced.

  • Barnier has raised the prospect of tax hikes to bring France's deficit under control, calling the budget situation 'very serious'. Barnier: "The budgetary situation of the country [...] is very serious. I have requested all the [parties] to assess its exact reality. This situation deserves better than [soundbites]. It demands responsibility ,"
  • The PM did not mention any specific tax increases, but the very prospect has raised hackles. Outgoing Interior Minister (and potential 2027 presidential nominee) Gerald Darmanin saidthat it is "out of the question" to join or "support" a government that increases taxes. "I will not participate in a government that is not clear on the issue of taxes,"
  • Earlier, centre-right deputy Charles de Courson refused an invite to join the gov't. He joins centre-left Socialist Party deputy Philippe Brun and PS Mayor of Avignon Cécile Helle in turning down ministerial positions in the past 48 hours.
  • Barnier cannot face a censure vote until 1 Oct when the National Assembly reconvenes.