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Base Effects See Sizeable CPI Y/Y Declines

CANADA DATA
  • The BoC should be most heavily focused on the M/M developments we touched upon in the earlier bullet [see here] but the Y/Y changes are also worth keeping in mind.
  • Headline slowed from 4.41% to 3.36% Y/Y, just about as expected vs consensus 3.4% and clearly within the analyst range of 3.2-3.6%.
  • The BoC’s preferred core measures meanwhile slowed slightly more than expected to an average of 3.85% Y/Y (cons 3.95%) from a marginally upward revised 4.25% Y/Y and have now retraced from the Jul’22 high of 5.40% Y/Y.
  • A cleaner measure of ex food & energy saw a larger moderation on the month, easing from 4.42% to 3.95% Y/Y for still its lowest since Feb’22. (In seasonally adjusted terms the 0.20% M/M in May’23 compared with a particularly strong 0.64% M/M in May’22).

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