Batley & Spen By-Election Dominates Political Focus w/ Labour Under Pressure

Political focus in the UK today trained on the parliamentary by-election in the constituency of Batley and Spen in the north of England. The sole opinion poll carried out in the constituency carried out during the campaign so far shows the centre-right Conservatives leading the centre-left Labour party by 47% to 41%, while betting markets give an 80% implied probability of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's party taking the seat.

• Taking the seat, so shortly after winning another northern constituency in Hartlepool, but losing the previously 'safe' Conservative seat of Chesham and Amersham in southern England, would act as another signal of the continued re-alignment of UK politics not along class/economic/income lines but on social conservative/Leave voter vs social liberal/Remain voter lines.

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Batley and Spen By-Election, %

Source: Betdata.io, Betfair, MNI

• Labour have held the seat since former PM Tony Blair's landslide win in 1997, and the loss of the seat would deal another blow to the party in its northern heartlands, while solidifying Johnson's efforts to eliminate the 'red wall' of Labour seats in northern England. Party leader Sir Keir Starmer has been under notable pressure since the previous by-election loss in Hartlepool in May, with his accusers decrying a 'lack of vision' in what the Labour party should offer.

Source: Kirklees Council, Survation, MNI

• Labour's efforts to hold the seat have been hindered by the campaign of perennial leftist candidate and former Labour MP, George Galloway, who is running under the 'Workers Party of Britain' banner. His inflammatory rhetoric on Starmer's stance on issues such as Palestine and Kashmir in a constituency with a large Muslim population has resulted in a bitter campaign, drawing support away from the Labour candidate Kim Leadbeater (sister of Jo Cox who was MP for the constituency until her murder in June 2016).
• The Conservatives are also likely to be bolstered by the 'Heavy Woollen District Independents' not standing. The party, which stood as a proxy for the Brexit Party in the 2019 General election, won 12.2% of the vote, of which a significant portion - as evidenced in the Hartlepool by-election - is likely to shift to the Conservatives.