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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
Two German states hold elections to their regional Landtag (legislatures) on 8 October; Bavaria, the country's largest state and a key driver of the German economy, and Hesse, home to Frankfurt am Main, the centre of German financial services. While neither elections are seen as likely to deliver shock results, the support recorded by both governing and opposition parties will be viewed with interest amid tensions within the federal coalition and the surge in backing for the right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) in federal polling.
- Hesse: Governed by the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and environmentalist Greens. CDU set to remain the largest party, but AfD, Greens, and centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) all vying for second place. If the AfD can secure second place it would be the first time that it has held that position in a state election in the former West Germany.
- Bavaria: Centre-right Christian Social Union (CSU) of Minister-President Markus Söder set to remain largest party, and could re-form coalition with centre-right regionalist Free Voters (FW). Unique politics of Bavaria (long dominated by CSU, more conservative than other states but with little far-right influence, makes the state election less impactful from national viewpoint. Söder is viewed as a potential chancellor candidate for the CDU/CSU in 2025, a strong election could bolster this position.
Chart 1. Opinion Polling for Bavarian (LHS) and Hessian (RHS) State Elections, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: INSA, Civey, FGW, Infratest dimap, Wahlkreisprognose, GMS, Forsa, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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