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BAX 2023 Inversion Fully Reverses In Firm Contrast To SOFR

CANADA
  • BAX futures hold close to lows for the day in a sizeable sell-off, partly catch-up from broader FI moves yesterday with Canada out on Victoria Day but also with some specific CAD rates underperformance.
  • The front Jun’23 yield has reversed Friday’s (US debt talk impasse related) drop with a 3bp increase to 5.08% but it sees larger increases thereafter, with the Dec’23 +13.5bp at 5.13% for the highest since US regional banking issues first came to light in early March (Jun’24 with a larger +17bps but similar trend).
  • These leave the BAM3/Z3 spread at +0.05, set for its first positive close since Mar 8 (+0.045) and in turn its highest since Apr 2022 as markets probe the BoC's conditional pause. It’s in notable contrast to the -0.51 for the SOFR equivalent in the US.

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