Free Trial

BAX Curve Maintaining Heavy Inversion

CANADA
  • OIS implies a 32bp hike priced for tomorrow’s decision, i.e. a strong chance of the policy rate increasing to 4% and with an outside chance of 4.25%.
  • Looking further out, BAX futures have cheapened up to 4 ticks out to the Jun’23, helping maintain an implied terminal policy rate of circa 4.25%, before rallying from the Dec’23 onward (1 tick BAZ3, 7 ticks BAM4).
  • The curve remains notably more inverted than in the US, with BAH3/Z3 -0.52 and BAZ3/M4 -0.75 [see chart].

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.